This column will be a weekly look into everything fantasy football. My observations will be anything I have seen or heard over the week that has caught my interest. Most will be football related, but I may sprinkle in some other nuggets of info along the way.

The speculations will be my take on NFL news and how it should pertain to fantasy football. As you all hopefully know, I don’t see the future, so don’t expect these all to come true. They are my theories and ideas, and hopefully they will prove to be helpful when making fantasy football decisions.

As for the revelations, they will be disclosures made by me. They may pertain to lineup decisions, statements on a player’s future outlook or even stat projections. I plan on keeping score on these, so that when the year is through we can establish just how well I did.

Observation
After watching Jonathan Stewart gobble up most of Carolina’s red zone work last week, I am pretty confident in saying that he is in store for a strong second half of the season. On paper coming into the season, I wasn’t a huge fan of their schedule, but after watching both Stewart and DeAngelo Williams just abuse a very solid Arizona rush defense for 240 yards and two touchdowns, the Panthers look set on having their way in the running game. Jake Delhomme has been brutal, so coach John Fox really has not choice but to run the ball thirty times a game and grind out wins. With Stewart looking locked in as the red zone option, he is a serious threat to average a touchdown a game down the stretch, making him a weekly start.

Speculation
At this moment, Texans coach Gary Kubiak isn’t naming a starter at running back for his team, saying he expects to use all three of his backs on game day. Those words can’t be making Steve Slaton owners all that happy. Combine that with the performance put up last week by Ryan Moats when Slaton was benched after his league leading fifth lost fumble (he has fumbled eight times in total), and you can see why Kubiak has some thinking to do. At 5-3, the Texans are in a position to make a run at their franchises first ever playoff berth. Their passing game has been awesome so far, and when a team passes that well there should be some open running lanes, but Slaton is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. Right now I say this is a straight time share, with Moats getting early down work and Slaton serving as a change of pace and third down back. I don’t think it’s safe starting either of them unless your league offers a flex spot. All Slaton owners would be wise trying to get their hands on Moats, because Houston has a very favorable schedule down the stretch, and if either get a majority of the work they will be worth starting.

Revelation
My favorite matchup of the week that I am exploiting every chance I can is Seattle’s passing game at home against a Detroit pass defense that has more holes in it than a pair of Gary Busey’s underwear. I love Matt Hasselbeck, Nate Burleson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, John Carlson and even Deion Branch in a pinch this week. The Lions give up an average of 19.1 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, 22.7 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and 10.4 fantasy points to opposing tight ends. It’s hard to be down on a one win team, but I am after the Lions lost at home what I thought was an even worse Rams team. I am actually praying Calvin Johnson plays so that Detroit hangs in the game allowing more points to be scored by all involved.
 

Observation
Every week that goes by, the Jets schedule against the run looks more and more appealing. The loss of Leon Washington for the season makes Thomas Jones a very attractive option for the stretch run. After the Jets bye this week, they face Jacksonville (25th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game), New England (15th), Carolina (24th), Buffalo (32nd), Tampa Bay (30th), Atlanta (23rd) and Indianapolis (17th). The fact that the Jets rank first in rushing offense, while having a rookie quarterback that teams stack the box against is a testament to this team’s ability to run. Find the guy who has Jones in your league, and pray he needs a running back for this week while he is on bye and try and trade for him. How can you not want him after how good he has been thus far and that cake walk of a schedule?
 

Speculation
Nothing but speculation going on in Houston right now, as they have also lost stud tight end (not sure I will ever place the word stud before tight end again) Owen Daniels for the season with a torn ACL. He will be replaced in the lineup by Joel Dressen, who in his fourth year has just 25 receptions for 225 yards and a pair of touchdowns. I think the term downgrade can be used as a slight compliment here to be honest. On paper, the person most likely to benefit from this injury would be wide receiver Kevin Walter. I however think that the Texans for the time being are going to keep running all the same plays they were running using an “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” attitude and see if they can get production from Dressen. The plays they are calling are working, the execution is working, so why not try and continue doing what works until it fails? Opposing defenses will not be expecting Dressen or any other tight end heavily involved on offense. If they fail, I see an increase in value for Walter, but until they do so, I say temper your expectations on him.
 

Revelation
After last season’s run in with Coach Mike Singletary it was hard to get a vibe on what to expect this season from Vernon Davis. What we have gotten so far has exceeded all expectations, and I am here to tell you that I think the strong play will continue. He is on pace to score 16 touchdowns, a total that matches his production for his first three years in the league. With Alex Smith under center in place of the ineffective Shaun Hill, in just six quarters of work, Davis has caught 10 passes for 113 yards and four touchdowns. The addition of Michael Crabtree to the lineup will only help, as he will keep opposing defenses honest. With San Francisco facing the Titans this week, I would be floored if Davis didn’t have another fine game. Teams will continue to stack the box against San Francisco and force Alex Smith to beat them via the pass, and all early indications point to Davis being his favorite target.
 

Observation
After watching the Saints finely tuned offense on Monday night against the Falcons, I still can’t believe Pierre Thomas isn’t averaging at least 20 touches a game. I have been all about him since the preseason, and his play has justified seeing the ball more, but Coach Sean Payton keeps bringing in Mike Bell to swipe away carries. The only reason I can even fathom would be fear of Thomas getting injured, because he is statistically and physically the better player. An untrained eye can see that. As the season continues, I see Thomas’s workload increasing, but he will probably yield some goal line carries to Bell. His owners shouldn’t worry too much about that, because three of Thomas’s four touchdown carries were at least 19 yards, meaning the guy can take it to the house from anywhere on the field.
 

Speculation
Future hall-of-famer Edgerrin James was released this week by the Seahawks, which leaves the running back chores to Julius Jones and second year man Justin Forsett. At first glance it definitely makes the running back situation in Seattle less foggy with one less mouth to feed, but in my opinion, it stinks of straight up time share. Jones has been average this year on paper, but a closer look at his numbers shows he has failed to rush for over 60 yards five of the seven games Seattle have played. Forsett in limited touches has put up better numbers. After seeing him live in Week 2 against San Francisco, I came away impressed with his speed and vision. His issue has been fumbles, putting the ball on the ground twice in just 30 combined touches. With James out of the picture, these guys look on track to battle it out for playing time on a team that looks set to miss the playoffs. If you have a roster spot, grab Forsett, and if you plan on playing Jones, do so with extreme caution regardless of the matchup, his grip on the starting job is very loose in my eyes.
 

Revelation
No receiver this season has done more with less this season than the Cowboys Miles Austin. To date this season he has been thrown to just 42 times, to put that into perspective, Andre Johnson has 80 targets, and both have virtually identical. Since being inserted into the lineup in Week 5, he has been targeted 30 times, and proceeded to make 16 catches for 482 yards and five touchdowns. He is clearly now the number one option in Dallas and with that comes much better coverage, but I don’t think it will matter. He has the size and speed to cause problems in any secondary, and Tony Romo is going to look his way 10 times a game moving forward. This guy is here to stay folks, so if you can find an owner who thinks he is selling high and you need receiver help, go get this guy.
 

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