Tier-Drafting: Running Backs 2.0
Posted July 15, 2009
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Originally posted on May 1, 2009. Look for a new updated version by late August.

2008 rookies like Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Matt Forte brought new life to the RB position while veterans like Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams certainly stepped their game up. Will the 2009 class of RBs like Knowshon Moreno and Chris 'Beanie' Wells give us an encore ? Is Derrick Ward going to be this year’s Michael Turner ? How does the top RB drafted in the 2008 class, Darren McFadden, plan not to dissapoint fantasy owners in 2009 ?

Here’s an early, post-draft look at the 2009 Fantasy Running Backs….

First Tier

- Adrian Peterson (MIN) – Obviously, A.P. should not last through the top three picks in any fantasy league. After rushing for over 1,700 yards and 10 TDs in an injury-free season, I’d like to see him score a little more and I think he is capable of 15-18 TDs. His quarterback play doesn’t help him at all but the addition of all-around weapon Percy Harvin, should give opposing defenses more to focus on than just A.P.

- Matt Forte (CHI) – His 1,200 yards rushing and 8 TDs were impressive for a 2nd round draft pick however his 63 receptions, 477 yards, and 4 additional TDs is what puts him near the top of this list. Bearing a sophomore slump, Forte’s all-around game should improve as the Bears are now armed with Pro-Bowl QB Jay Cutler.

- Michael Turner (ATL) – Not that I expected 1,700 rushing yards and 17 TDs from Turner, however his success did not surprise me at all in 2008. During his four seasons in San Diego, L.T.’s protégé averaged over 5.5 yards per carry and was arguably the most dependable back-up in the league. Everything seemed to fall into place for Atlanta as Matt Ryan blossomed, Roddy White became a monster, and Michael Turner ran wild. The addition of Hall-of-Fame TE Tony Gonzalez will only make it harder for opposing defenses to stop the Falcons and I expect another Pro-Bowl campaign from Michael Turner.

- Chris Johnson (TEN) – If you watched the Titans/Ravens play-off game, you'd know how much Chris Johnson means to this offense. LenDale White isn’t much but a goal-line back and I don’t think that either Kerry Collins or Vince Young strike much fear into opposing defenses. The Titans completely fell apart when Johnson left the game with an injury and lost that game. Expect Johnson to get more of a load this year and improve on his 1,200 yards and 9 TDs from last year. He’s also a receiving threat as he logged in 43 receptions last year.

- Steve Slaton (HOU) – Slaton dropped to the 3rd round of the 2008 draft mainly because of his size(5’9”- 201 lbs) and then spent his rookie season laughing all the way to 1,700 overall yards, 50 receptions, and 10 TDs. He also led the NFL in 4th QTR rushing and for a little guy who’s supposed to wear down as the game goes on, that certainly wasn’t the case. Expect similar stats or more as the Texans did not draft and have yet to sign any additional help at RB to share some of the load with Slaton.

- Steven Jackson (STL) – Regardless of his past two injury plagued seasons, he has still managed to average over 1,300 total yards and 7 TDs in both seasons. He’s still 25 and currently all the Rams really have on offense. If healthy for a full 16 games, I have no doubt in my mind that Steven Jackson is currently the best RB in football and this year’s 2nd overall pick, LT Jason Smith will only help his case. The last time he started all 16 games (2006), Jackson amassed for over 2,300 yards, 16 TDs, and 90 receptions……… that's scary.

- Clinton Portis (WAS) – Portis has really never matched the numbers he put up in Denver in his first two seasons, however he’s been one of the most consistent backs in the league for the past 7 years. He’s still a couple of years away from the big 30, has been healthy, and I expect more of the same 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs that he’s been averaging to be about the same in 09’.

- Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) – As a back-up for the past three seasons, Drew has averaged over 1,200 overall yards and 13 TDs. Fred Taylor is now gone and Drew is expected to carry the load. He might be short but when he runs, he’s a 208 pound bowling ball and I have no worries but him not being able to carry the load. Look for over 1,500 yards and at least 15 TDs.

- Brian Westbrook (PHI) – Westbrook will be 30 by the time the season starts but do not let that fool you. The additions of LT Jason Peters and RT Stacy Andrews (brother of RG Shawn Andrews) should push the Eagles to near the top of the list of NFL Offensive lines and as defenses worry about DeSean Jackson and 1st round draft pick Jeremy Maclin stretching the field, it is not far-fetched to expect 1,800 overall yards and 15 TDs from this all-purpose weapon.

- LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) – How good are you when you pile over 1,500 yards and 12 TDs and yet everyone is saying you lost a step ? The Chargers did not draft another RB as many draft pundits predicted and while Darren Sproles is pretty good for his size, he’s no Maurice Jones-Drew. The window for this franchise is closing and L.T. knows that and I expect him to go all-out this season. The return of Shawne Merriman and the addition of this year's 1st round pick Larry English should help bring the defense back to where it used to be so you can expect less shoot-outs and pass-attempts from Phillip Rivers, and more running from Tomlinson.

 

Second Tier

- Marion Barber (DAL) – Barber is first-tier talent but I have a feeling the Cowboys will go back to using him as they previously did when they still had Julius Jones. Felix Jones is a great talent and will most certainly take many carries away from Barber. You can count for maybe 800-900 yards and 10-12 TDs.

- Brandon Jacobs (NYG) – Away goes Derrick Ward and his 1,000 yards that Brandon Jacobs fantasy owners could not stand last year. The problem is that Jacobs has not proven that he can play a full season on his own as a starter. In his first two seasons he missed 1 game as he was mainly a back-up and 3rd string. However, in his past 2 seasons when he’s been given the starting job, he’s missed close to 10. To be honest I’m kinda stuck on what I would do if I had an opportunity to draft Jacobs so for now I’ll leave him as a Second-tier.

- Frank Gore (SF) – Gore’s receiving ability is what makes him better than an average fantasy back. He’s yet to surpass 10 TDs in a season but he’s almost sure to give you at least 1,500 total yards and 50 receptions.

- DeAngelo Williams (CAR) – I’m really undecided on this one and won’t know for sure until the end of pre-season. William’s dominance came in the 2nd half of the season, while Jonathan Stewart was the better fantasy back in the 1st half. Where the hell was DeAngelo in the past three other seasons ?? I see them both possibly going for over 1,000 yards this season if they continue to run as well as they have but I don’t see 1,500 yards for either one and I highly doubt Williams will score 20 TDs as he did in 2008.

- Ryan Grant (GB) – Here’s your average RB who should run for slightly over 1,000 yards and 6-8 TDs. Will he blossom into a star in his 3rd season ?? I'd take a chance.

- Kevin Smith (DET) – Smith has the size to be a three-down back and showed everyone that, as the Lions finally let him run the ball in the 2nd half of the season after the Rudy Johnson experience failed. As bad as that team was, Smith had over 1,100 total yards, 40 receptions, and 8 TDs. With a new coach and 1st round picks Matt Stafford and Brandon Pettigrew, the Lions should be a little more respectable on offense and I expect Smith’s overall perfomance to increase as well.

- Thomas Jones (NYJ) – Jones will be 32 when the season starts and will have a rookie QB at the helm. We all know he’s been playing well way past his prime and the Jets confirmed that by making a move in the draft to acquire RB Shonn Greene in the 3rd round. I’m not saying Jones won’t rush for 1,000 and score 10 TDs but I expect the Jets to use him a little less as they’ll probably transition Greene into the running game.

- Pierre Thomas (NO) – In five starts, Thomas totalled 900 yards and 12 TDs. He’s only going into his 3rd season, Deuce McCallister is gone, and at this point, it’s hard to imagine Reggie Bush ever becoming a three down back. The Saints were predicted by many to draft a running back with their first round pick and didn’t, which shows me they’re confident with Pierre Thomas as their starting back going into 2009.

- Ronnie Brown (MIA) – At this point, Ronnie is on my borderline between 2nd and 3rd tier. He’s only been over 1,000 yards once and his 916 yards / 10 TD performance last year had wild-cat all over it. I’m not sure the wild-cat offense will work as effectivelly for Brown this season, especially being that the Dolphins spent a 2nd round pick on Pat White. He has however, done well in the past without running the wild-cat so (991 total yards / 5 TDs through 7 games before injury in 2007) if you end up with him on your team, good things may happen.

- Darren McFadden (OAK) – McFadden should be in the first-tier along with the other class of 08’ running backs, however injuries and the fact he plays for Al Davis ruined his rookie season. I fully expect him to be back 100% and beat out Michael Bush and Justin Fargas for the starting job. DMC is also a threat off the backfield as a receiver, so I will be expecting at least 1,200 total yards and 10 TDs, along with about 50 receptions.

 

Third Tier

- Marshawn Lynch (BUF) – I think Lynch is a good running back but at this point, he has a lot to prove before he can make it out of my third-tier. He’s done ok his first two seasons but he’s been having a lot of his carries taken away by Fred Jackson. This season does not look any more promising as Buffalo added Dominic Rhodes to the mix and that’s not even mentioning the three game suspension Lynch is on to start the season.

- Joseph Addai (IND) – Only two seasons ago, Addai had 1,400 total yards and 15 TDs and now he has 1st round draft pick Donald Brown breathing down his neck. It shows you how quick teams will turn on you if you’re not performing, no matter how young you are. He missed 4 games last year and in 12 starts, ran for only 544 yards with a 3.5 average. While I don’t expect him to completely lose his job, I do think the Colts will split the carries between him and Brown. Much like Lynch, I’d stay away from him if I could but he’s still young enough to overcome this and the drafting of Donald Brown might just give him that push.

- Knowshon Moreno (DEN) – I’d have Moreno as a tier 2 if it weren’t for the other 10 running backs in Denver's roster and also how the Patriots have been using their running backs recently (McDaniels is new coach and former Patriots off. Coordinator). What I do know is that, McDaniels is in enough sh*t as it is for trading away Jay Cutler and I don’t think he’d waste a 1st round pick on a player if he didn’t intend on using him.

- Derrick Ward (TB) – The 2009 Michael Turner ?? I’m not sure who else Tampa Bay has in their roster aside from Earnest Graham and I doubt Cadillac Williams will make his 150th triumphant return attempt so I think it is safe to say he’ll be the starting back. Only thing he has working against him is that rookie quarterback Josh Freeman will most likely be the opening day starter.

- Reggie Bush (NO) – At this point, Reggie has become a high risk/high reward fantasy option. I’m not sure if we can ever count on him for rushing over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs but if you’re in a league where points per reception counts, then he’s worth the pick. Last year he started 9 games and had 850 total yards and 6 TDs. If he were to stay healthy and beat out Pierre Thomas for the starting job, I think he can finally break out and have a good season for once. If not this season, I’m not sure if he’ll ever be more than a decoy and receiver out the back-field.

- Chris 'Beanie' Wells (ARI) – The doors are wide open for Chris Wells to become the starting Cardinals running back in 09’. Edgerrin James and J.J. Arrington are now gone and his only competition is Tim Hightower. On my last blog, I had Hightower as a third-tier running back but that was until he lost the starting job that was handed to him half-way through the season. Chris Wells has the power and speed to take it to the house every time and the only thing working against him is that Arizona is mainly a passing team.

- LenDale White (TEN) – I don’t really like White, however being that he scored 15 TDs last season, I can’t just keep him off this list. He ran for over 1,000 yards in 07’ and 7 TDs but with a below 4.0 average. I predict that Chris Johnson will handle a bigger bulk of the running game this season, however I can see White going for at least 700 yards and 10 TDs.

- Jonathan Stewart (CAR) – With the way Carolina ran the ball last year, Stewart could be at least a #2 running back on your team. He ran for over 800 yards and 10 TDs last season with a 4.5 avg. He would immediatelly be a first-tier back if Williams were to go down with an injury but the way he’s been running, Stewart might be on the bench a little longer but he’s definitely worth the pick.

- Cedric Benson (CIN) – Well, the Bengals must’ve seen something in Benson that they've re-signed him in the off-season. They also cut 1st round bust Chris Perry which leaves Benson as pretty much the only RB in the roster. He should go into the season as the starter and has some potential with the return of Carson Palmer and the passing game that lacked all last season.

- Jamal Lewis (CLE) – What can you say about Lewis ?? He’s about the slowest human on the planet but he’s still putting up 1,000 yard seasons. His only competition will come from back-up Jerome Harrison and 6th round pick James Davis from Clemson.

- Julius Jones (SEA) – Seahawks should be a team on the rise with the return of Matt Hasselbeck, the signing of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and the drafting of Aaron Curry. I don’t see any other RB on the roster that’s a threat to Jones so I can see him putting up some good numbers.

- Willie Parker (PIT) – Parker can be a good running back when he’s 100% healthy. He’ll have Rashard Mendenhall to worry about but if he can return to 2006 form (1,700 total yard / 16 TDs), he’s definitely worth a look as your 3rd RB option this season.

 

Sleepers

- Le’Ron McClain (BAL) – McClain is a converted full-back who ran for 900 yards and 11 total TDs last season. He’s basically another LenDale White.

- Ray Rice (BAL) – Willis McGahee is an injury waiting happen and Le’Ron McClain may end up as more of a goal-line back. Rice is only 5’8” but weighs 205 and did well last season when he had a chance. If McGahee is released or ends up missing any more time, I expect Rice to be more involved in the offense this season.

- Tim Hightower (ARI) – Even though I just bashed Hightower when speaking of Chris Wells, I still see him as a sleeper. He was given the starting job, had it taken away, and has just seen his team draft a running back in the 1st to become the eventual starter. If that is not motivation, I don’t know what is.

- Jamaal Charles (KC) – While KC has yet to release Larry Johnson, I think it’s safe to say that Jamaal Charles will be more involved in the offense next season. He was one of the fastest RBs coming out of the 08’ class and has the size (5’11” – 200 lbs) to be a three down back if needed.

- Donald Brown (IND) – I see Brown and Joseph Addai sharing carries this season but if Addai is to miss any time due to injury, Brown may just take the job and never give it back.

- Felix Jones (DAL) – 30 carries, 266 yards, 8.9 avg., and 3 TDs in 2008 before his injury. Maybe Oakland should’ve picked him instead of McFadden. Marion Barber is still the starter and should get most of the carries but you can’t ignore Jones’ big play ability.

- Rashad Jennings / Chauncey Washington (JAX) – Washington is a 2008 7th round pick from USC and Jennings is the 2009 7th round pick from Liberty. I can see them both battling for the back-up spot during training camp and if Maurice Jones-Drew can’t handle the load on his own, then one of these players will end up taking on the Fred Taylor role of the past few seasons.

- Shonn Greene (NYJ) – The Jets offensive line turned ancient Thomas Jones into a Pro-bowler while freeing him up for over 1,300 yards and 13 TDs. The Jets did trade up into the 3rd to grab Greene so I assume he’ll be getting the rock a few times a game at least. With that offensive line, he’s definitely a back you want on your roster if Jones goes down.

- Glen Coffee (SF) – Frank Gore has yet to put up the monster numbers he put up on his second season and hasn’t been the healthiest back as of late either. Mike Singletary takes no crap as we’ve seen, and he won’t hesitate to enter the 6’0’, 210 lb 3rd round draft pick from Alabama into the line-up.

- Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) – Yet another RB from the 08’ class who could be making a leap if given the opportunity. An injury in his 1st start last year ended the 1st round draft pick’s season before it barely started but he should be back at 100% and will give Willie Parker all the competition he can handle.

- Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) – With Derrick Ward gone to Tampa Bay, Bradshaw may take over that role in New York. I don’t know that he’ll get 1,000 yards but should be close or possibly more if Jacobs is to go down. He’ll have some competition from rookie Andre Brown.

 

Beware!!!

- Larry Johnson (KC) – Honestly, I don’t see L.J. back in KC. We’ve seen Cassel in New England and we’ve also see how Todd Haley ran his offense in Arizona and both scenarios would call for Larry to become a good blocking back and unfortunately, that he will never be. If he is released, I’m sure he will end up somewhere quickly but he’s also turning 30 soon and I think his good years are way behind him. He’s not far from spending his Sundays at home watching games along with Shaun Alexander and Rudi Johnson.

- Willis McGahee (BAL) – If McGahee doesn’t step it up this season, he’ll be joining Larry Johnson and friends on Sundays. Regardless of health, McClain and Rice are now in the mix so unless it’s a late round pick, don’t take a chance on McGahee.

- Edgerrin James (FA) – James is now a free agent and should be signing somewhere soon. I don’t see him signing anywhere as a full-time starter and he’s already past his prime, so at this point I don’t think he is worth much.

- Fred Taylor (NE) – Taylor is way past his prime and I believe the Patriots only signed him for veteran leadership. He may get a carry or 2 a game if he’s lucky but you can expect much of the same committee approach in New England.

- Earnest Graham (TB) – Graham showed flashes in 2007 and was primed for a big season in 08. In 10 games before his injury, he was on pace for barely 1,000 yards and had only 4 TDs. He should be a decent back-up but I think it’ll be Derrick Ward’s time to shine.

- Laurence Maroney (NE) – I’m sure that by now everyone knows not to even look at Maroney. The thing is, when he’s healthy, he’s been good… but that’s a big IF. If he’s somewhow able to come out of training camp as a 1st string, it still may not mean much as New England loves to air the ball 50 times a game and also rotate all running backs. Maroney’s best chance may be if he’s traded or released and plays for another team.

- Rudi Johnson (FA) – I don’t care where he signs and IF he signs anywhere, he’s done.

 

Good backups / Cuffs

- Darren Sproles (SD) – As some of you may have witnessed in the play-off game against the Colts, Sproles can get the job done if need be. He’s a good pick-up even if L.T. stays healthy all season. I doubt San Diego will want to wear L.T. down during the season if they want to make a push for the playoffs so expect Sproles to see a lot of action.

- Chester Taylor (MIN) – He’s definitely someone you want on your team wether A.P. is injured or not. As a full time back-up last season, Taylor put together 800 total yards, 45 receptions, and 6 TDs.

- Fred Jackson / Dominic Rhodes (BUF) – I originally had Fred Jackson as a sleeper after his play last year and expected him to take 100% advantage of Lynch’s suspension to make a name for himself. Now I’m hearing that newly signed Dominic Rhodes, has been told he’ll be the week 1 starter. I’m sure they’ll end up splitting carries but I’m not sure who’s carries will be cut once Lynch returns to the line-up.

- Kevin Faulk (NE) – Life-long back-up Kevin Faulk will always give you something. I’m not sure who is starting in NE but wether Faulk starts or not, he’s coming off a 1,000 total yard season and 6 TDs on 58 receptions.

- Leon Washington (NYJ) – Regardless of Shonn Greene being there or not, Leon should still get touches. He’ll lose some value now that there’s another RB added to the mix, however his 800 total yards, 6.0 yards per carry, and 8 TDs in 2008 should not be ignored.

- Ladell Betts (WAS) – Betts is going into his 8th season as a Redskin back-up. He ran for close to 1,200 yards and 4 TDs in 9 starts back in 2006 when Portis missed half the season, so you know you can count on him if Portis is to go down again.

- Jerious Norwood (ATL) – 900 total yards, 36 receptions, and 6 TDs as a back-up last season. This man is a threat to score any time he touches the ball.

- Justin Fargas / Michael Bush (OAK) – I’m not quite sure who’s the back-up here and hell, for all I know one of them may end up being starter. I thought Bush had done enough last season to allow the Raiders to trade him for some draft picks but I guess not.

- Le’Sean McCoy (PHI) – Westbrook is turning 30 and we all know what happens to most running backs at that point. Westbrook will remain the RB and should still be effective but make sure you keep an eye out as McCoy would be a great addition if Westbrook were to go down.

- Ricky Williams (MIA) – Williams will get more than the average carries a back-up gets and if Brown is to go down, they’ll rely heavily on Williams to carry the running game.

 

 
 
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